NFL Week 3 picks: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Bills thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to start out issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her big choke job towards the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally huge choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 towards the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is actually the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her sport. That factor has cursed the group and my picks. In the event you’ve ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs whenever you take a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks flawed. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not consider in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I needs to be simply effective making my picks this week. Though I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Talking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder which you can take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL skilled by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks by means of on that hyperlink, so be sure that to click on early and sometimes. Really, that is not true, I feel the cash really simply goes to the funds CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Talking of Brinson, he is the host of the Choose Six Podcast, and simply in case I have never made it clear over the previous two weeks, I will be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Although I am solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday by means of Friday and it’s best to attempt to pay attention as usually as attainable (You’ll be able to take heed to Tuesday’s episode under and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve seen one factor in regards to the Steelers this season, it is that they mainly present up each week with no offensive sport plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been understanding properly for them to date and I feel persons are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain in regards to the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have never learn evaluations that dangerous since “The Emoji Film” got here out. On the charge he is going, Matt Canada may be teaching in Canada by the top of the season. You already know issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your identify to attempt to get followers drunk. 

I will have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this sport is that I don’t know which group goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I assume should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL group is healthier than the Browns at discovering inconceivable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I feel we’d see that on this sport. That being stated, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not ok to benefit from it. By means of two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these sport have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I cannot be predicting a blowout, however I will probably be predicting an upset. 

The decide: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

I don’t know the way it occurred, however this sport is in some way the one one on the schedule this week that may characteristic two undefeated groups taking part in towards one another. I am not normally one to inform folks what to do with their lives, however when you have plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, it’s best to positively cancel these plans so you may watch this sport. Effectively, except you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or selecting up your toddler at a celebration or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I’d really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS along with his picks final week. To be trustworthy, I in all probability may have made more cash taking part in BINGO in Week 2 than selecting video games. 

Anyway, I have been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless don’t know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are positively good, however I am simply undecided how good. Certain, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns towards Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens group that had a nasty protection and a Patriots group that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur once they play a Payments group that is not dangerous at both of these issues? It is in all probability not going to finish properly for the Dolphins. 

The opposite downside for the Dolphin is that they at all times appear to battle towards Josh Allen. The Payments have received seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a median of 19.3 factors per sport. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each sport he is ever performed towards the Dolphins, which positively is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel towards sure groups. We have seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Payments, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I feel that domination continues on Sunday. 

The decide: Payments 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of getting this sport moved to South America might be Rodgers’ finest probability at successful this week. If he cannot pull that off, meaning he will must play in Florida and if there’s one factor I learn about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates taking part in within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per sport in Florida and 0.2 when taking part in exterior of Florida. He’s actually throwing interceptions at a ten instances larger charge in Florida than he does at another time. It is mindless, which I assume type of is sensible, as a result of nothing in Florida is sensible. I imply, we’re speaking a couple of state the place a man is attempting to interrupt the world report for largest assortment of “Titanic” motion pictures. 

And no, that tweet is just not referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is unquestionably not the world report. 

Anyway, in case you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you’ll have seen that the air is so thick that you simply really feel such as you’re respiration out of a straw stuffed with maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… You already know what, I will simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Additionally, let’s not neglect about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from taking part in school soccer in California to taking part in skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to cope with Florida climate and I am beginning to suppose he may really hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. Then again, the Buccaneers observe in that climate each day, so I am guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this sport is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the greater matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I am taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time towards Brady and I feel he may need a fair worse report towards excessive humidity. 

I also needs to observe that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another for the reason that NFC title sport in January 2021. In the event you do not keep in mind that sport, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a area purpose with two minutes left in a sport the place the Packers have been down eight. 

It has been almost two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that area purpose. The one factor that is sensible for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a area purpose. 

The decide: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this 12 months to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball would not actually appear to be working. At any time when Wilson drops again to move, I’ve seen that considered one of three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete move or the play is blown useless as a result of the Broncos get referred to as for a delay of sport. 

As you in all probability seen, all of these issues are dangerous. If somebody advised me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I’d NEVER depart my home. In the event you’re questioning what my bizarre state of affairs has to do with something, I feel what I am saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three dangerous choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That’s their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely acquired 15 carries within the sport. As an alternative of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson maintain throwing the ball, which isn’t supreme when your QB is just finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did towards the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to appear to be Pete Carroll may need been proper about every little thing. He put a robust operating sport and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the group and it may be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. As an alternative of going with the “Let Russ Prepare dinner” philosophy, the Broncos may need to begin embracing the “Let Russ assist in the kitchen, however do not let him cook dinner by himself” philosophy. Principally, the Broncos ought to begin operating the ball extra and let that open up the move. 

Though Wilson hasn’t regarded good in any respect this season, if there’s one group he can flip issues round towards, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 instances whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is wise, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to know how the Seahawks have been in a position to win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Prepare dinner.

Please observe that letting Russ cook dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they may be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo underneath middle, however I am undecided that applies once they’re taking part in AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins towards AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The decide: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not need to say that this may go down as the best Monday night time sport of all-time, however I am beginning to suppose it may be attainable. It is the showdown of all showdowns: We now have a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up towards a Giants group that is undefeated on the season. 

This sport is the immovable power towards the immovable power and I”m saying that as a result of I do not suppose both offense is admittedly going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday night time. The Cowboys have the most effective defenses within the NFL they usually’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to underneath 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they need not, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per sport by means of two weeks and it is arduous to check them topping that quantity since this can probably be the perfect protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this sport goes to return right down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a giant motive the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot the way to deal with anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers operating again averaged 6.05 yards per carry towards the Cowboys and if Barkley can get wherever close to that quantity, it may be an extended night time for Dallas. 

One thing has to provide on Monday night time: Both Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession sport (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first sport of the season, and I am unable to consider I am going to do that, however I am taking the Giants although they’ve misplaced six straight Monday night time video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The decide: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remaining

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Final Week

Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in a daily season sport for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to utterly soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? In fact I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% probability he will soften down sooner or later and there is a 50% probability that meltdown goes to return within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, nevertheless it did not occur on the sphere, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was taking part in the Saints, which I consider is the NFL report for many consecutive video games smashing a pill towards one group. 

Worst decide: For some motive, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I will need to have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday night time as a result of no sane individual would ever decide Kirk Cousins to win a sport on Monday night time. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst successful proportion in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began at the least 10 Monday night time video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions towards the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Choosing Cousins to win in a Monday night time sport is like selecting a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is mindless, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks Report

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU general:18-13-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS general: 14-18

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability working towards for the meat loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month.